Four republican governors, three of whom are running for president in 2016, have shown a model for governance. The substance and style of their state leadership possibly could be adopted nationwide. By looking at the numbers, one can determine whether that would be a good thing or a bad thing -- ultimately, the voter will have to decide for himself or herself.
Wisconsin has an all-star governor, at least right now in the conservative polls. Governor Scott Walker has survived a recall election, won campaign after campaign, and stood foot to foot with aggressive labor unions. He is agnostic on the faith and patriotism of the president. Mr. Walker, on a recent trip abroad, "punted" on a question related to evolution.
On economic issues, he has some problems. Wisconsin went from a $517 million surplus in June of 2014 to a projected $2.2 billion deficit. Like you will see throughout this post, Mr. Walker implemented supply-side (a.k.a. "trickle down") tax cuts. Considered orthodoxy in conservative politics, it is believed that tax cuts can result in higher revenues because of increased economic activity. Right-leaning economists have debunked this crank theory.
In conjunction with less revenues, Wisconsin has not expanded Medicaid via ObamaCare. The costs for Medicaid are squeezing the state budget, yet Mr. Walker remains obstinate on his position. It is estimated that if Medicaid were expanded, the state could save $200 million a year. With choices having to be made, Mr. Walker has decided to cut education. The university system in Wisconsin will have to deal with a 13% cut to its operations. Naturally, students and teachers are not happy.
Hundreds of miles east, Governor Chris Christie -- known for his pugnacity and straight talk, and bridge politics-- manages the state of New Jersey. Mr. Christie faces problems of his own. Recently the New Jersey Supreme Court ruled that his unilateral cuts to the state pension fund were unconstitutional. Like Mr. Walker, Mr. Christie has to answer for a structural deficit of $7.3 billion. Since Mr. Christie refuses to raise taxes, he has proposed withholding property tax rebates, and refusing to fund state pensions. Toxicity surrounds Mr. Christie so now wealthy Republican donors are backing Jeb Bush rather than the New Jersey everyman.
Louisiana's governor is not quiet about his conservative credentials. Even after no-go Muslim zones were mocked and fact-checked, Governor Bobby Jindal stuck with it. Mr. Jindal embraces creationism, mocks climate change scientists, and courts birther voters. He isn't shy when explaining why the state's coffers are so depleted. It is all planned -- he wants to reduce the size of government.
Next year, Louisiana anticipates a $1.6 billion shortfall. Mr. Jindal has already spent money allocated for senior citizens, infrastructure, and reserve saving. His frantic strategies to pay for his own tax cuts have resulted in buildings sold and tax amnesties declared. Over $1 billion was added up from "gimmicks, games, and accounting tricks." Next year, Mr. Jindal may not be so fortunate -- the one-time sources may be dried up.
Like Messrs. Walker, Christie, and Jindal, Kansas Governor Sam Brownback ran passionately on his promise to cut taxes. He stated proudly that his conservative model would be a model eventually replicated across the country. Unfortunately for him, and for Kansas residents, the state is in trouble. Mr. Brownback has to find a way to fill a $280 million shortfall.
Similar to Mr. Christie, the Kansas Supreme Court declared Mr. Brownback's education cuts illegal. The schools are underfunded and the governor has to address it appropriately. One of the biggest tax cuts in history has led to fiscal ruin for the Midwest state.
One can see how a Republican would govern the nation. On the campaign trail, promises would be made about tax cuts, increased economic opportunity, and fiscal responsibility. When eventually it came to governance, however, reality would kick in. A president cannot fudge the numbers; they would have to find a way to pay for their proposed tax cuts.
The data is out there. We all know the Republican model for governance. Let's hope that it is not adopted at the federal level. It's not as pretty as promised.
Showing posts with label Conservatives. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Conservatives. Show all posts
Saturday, February 28, 2015
Thursday, July 31, 2014
Numbers Don't Lie, Ignore the Scoreboard
Oh, math. Perhaps one of the most disdained subjects in school, but anyone in existence knows of its importance. Math is incorporated in our everyday lives. As the wise Jay-z once stated, "numbers don't lie." It's common knowledge, however, the same cannot be said of politics.
Policy should be shaped by the data -- the indisputable numbers. But, I can't remember the last time when that has been the case. Ideologues, on both sides of the spectrum -- let's be honest though, more so the Republicans -- have found a way to mislead and confuse. Conclusions are always up to debate. The truth is always relative, no matter what the experts say. And even if partisans are confronted with the truth, it doesn't seem to matter.
That is why I was not surprised when I read a study conducted by University of Michigan political scientists. They found that evidence contrary to a held position does nothing to change the opinion of the belief-holder. In fact, the belief-holders grew more adamant in their false beliefs! Brendan Nyhan summarized it as follows: "the general idea is that it's absolutely threatening to admit you're wrong...the phenomenon -- known as 'backfire' -- is a 'natural defense to avoid ... cognitive dissonance.'"
Okay, so we already knew that no one "likes" to be wrong. What's the problem though with admitting that you're wrong, when shown concrete conflicting evidence? I ask, because as you can probably guess, some matters of policy should not be open to much debate.
I preface my comments with the fact that people should not be ridiculed or mocked. Conservatives have rightly condemned the left (some in the cable news business exaggerate) at times for "elitism." Nonetheless, liberals should not concede on the facts.
Republicans still assert a few claims that I find disturbing. "The stimulus did not work." Actually it did, and economists, both conservative and liberal, agree that it prevented another great depression. So can the talking points stop?
Here's another one: "tax cuts on the 'job creators' will boost the economy and the tax cuts will pay for itself." No, not so much in reality. As I pointed out in an earlier blog entry, Kansas attempted to experiment with trickle-down policies and it failed. California raised taxes and the economy grew. When will the voodoo economics stop?
Let's take the controversial, and widely misunderstood, ObamaCare. "No one will sign up," and "premiums will rise exponentially." Both wrong. You may have read -- or probably did not read because of the media coverage -- that over 8 million signed up the first year. The uninsured rate is dropping fast, and even more fast in states that expanded Medicaid. And what about premiums... Yep, you guessed it: California premiums are expected to rise modestly, much lower than the average rate of growth over recent years. Other states are showing the same data.
I won't even opine about climate change. I'll spare you the "activist rhetoric."
If you are one of my conservative friends, odds are that you will likely dismiss these citations and evidence. That's too bad. I'm definitely not saying that my positions are always right. Yet, there needs to be an opposition that can accept these facts. One can still hold conservative beliefs and still accept the evidence.
In this age of polarization, I doubt anything will be agreed upon, It's too damaging politically. Well, maybe one thing can be agreed upon; The scoreboard isn't everything, it's all about how the scoreboard looks.
Policy should be shaped by the data -- the indisputable numbers. But, I can't remember the last time when that has been the case. Ideologues, on both sides of the spectrum -- let's be honest though, more so the Republicans -- have found a way to mislead and confuse. Conclusions are always up to debate. The truth is always relative, no matter what the experts say. And even if partisans are confronted with the truth, it doesn't seem to matter.
That is why I was not surprised when I read a study conducted by University of Michigan political scientists. They found that evidence contrary to a held position does nothing to change the opinion of the belief-holder. In fact, the belief-holders grew more adamant in their false beliefs! Brendan Nyhan summarized it as follows: "the general idea is that it's absolutely threatening to admit you're wrong...the phenomenon -- known as 'backfire' -- is a 'natural defense to avoid ... cognitive dissonance.'"
Okay, so we already knew that no one "likes" to be wrong. What's the problem though with admitting that you're wrong, when shown concrete conflicting evidence? I ask, because as you can probably guess, some matters of policy should not be open to much debate.
I preface my comments with the fact that people should not be ridiculed or mocked. Conservatives have rightly condemned the left (some in the cable news business exaggerate) at times for "elitism." Nonetheless, liberals should not concede on the facts.
Republicans still assert a few claims that I find disturbing. "The stimulus did not work." Actually it did, and economists, both conservative and liberal, agree that it prevented another great depression. So can the talking points stop?
Here's another one: "tax cuts on the 'job creators' will boost the economy and the tax cuts will pay for itself." No, not so much in reality. As I pointed out in an earlier blog entry, Kansas attempted to experiment with trickle-down policies and it failed. California raised taxes and the economy grew. When will the voodoo economics stop?
Let's take the controversial, and widely misunderstood, ObamaCare. "No one will sign up," and "premiums will rise exponentially." Both wrong. You may have read -- or probably did not read because of the media coverage -- that over 8 million signed up the first year. The uninsured rate is dropping fast, and even more fast in states that expanded Medicaid. And what about premiums... Yep, you guessed it: California premiums are expected to rise modestly, much lower than the average rate of growth over recent years. Other states are showing the same data.
I won't even opine about climate change. I'll spare you the "activist rhetoric."
If you are one of my conservative friends, odds are that you will likely dismiss these citations and evidence. That's too bad. I'm definitely not saying that my positions are always right. Yet, there needs to be an opposition that can accept these facts. One can still hold conservative beliefs and still accept the evidence.
In this age of polarization, I doubt anything will be agreed upon, It's too damaging politically. Well, maybe one thing can be agreed upon; The scoreboard isn't everything, it's all about how the scoreboard looks.
The
general idea is that it’s absolutely threatening to admit you’re
wrong,” says political scientist Brendan Nyhan, the lead researcher on
the Michigan study. The phenomenon — known as “backfire” — is “a natural
defense mechanism to avoid that cognitive dissonance.” - See more at:
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2010/07/11/how_facts_backfire/#sthash.BlQmmnVn.dpuf
The
general idea is that it’s absolutely threatening to admit you’re
wrong,” says political scientist Brendan Nyhan, the lead researcher on
the Michigan study. The phenomenon — known as “backfire” — is “a natural
defense mechanism to avoid that cognitive dissonance.” - See more at:
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2010/07/11/how_facts_backfire/#sthash.BlQmmnVn.dpuf
“The
general idea is that it’s absolutely threatening to admit you’re
wrong,” says political scientist Brendan Nyhan, the lead researcher on
the Michigan study. The phenomenon — known as “backfire” — is “a natural
defense mechanism to avoid that cognitive dissonance.” - See more at:
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2010/07/11/how_facts_backfire/#sthash.BlQmmnVn.dpuf
“The
general idea is that it’s absolutely threatening to admit you’re
wrong,” says political scientist Brendan Nyhan, the lead researcher on
the Michigan study. The phenomenon — known as “backfire” — is “a natural
defense mechanism to avoid that cognitive dissonance.” - See more at:
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/articles/2010/07/11/how_facts_backfire/#sthash.BlQmmnVn.dpuf
Sunday, June 9, 2013
Blame the "Republicans"
It was an unusually cold morning for Irvine and the grass was dewy. I woke up and walked outside to my patio and I looked at my college, UCI, in the distance. I wondered how many of my fellow students would actually vote that day. I was even more curious as to how many would vote for a Republican. When I walked back into the living room, my roommate, half-dazed, asked curiously, "Did you vote, Chris?" I replied, "Yeah. But, I do not think McCain has a chance..."
I use to be a registered Republican. I grew up in a conservative family, went to a conservative high school, and associated with conservative friends. The funny thing is I never really believed in the values. My mother would always tell me with a smile, "Chrissie, if you want to be the Republican president, you are going to have to stop watching Hardball. And you better throw away those liberal books. I don't think your Republican friends will love those Michael Moore DVDs either." I would always grin and respond that I was just trying to study the other side.
The fact of the matter is that a lot of individuals use to be Republicans. There use to be a time when Republicans could advocate for a limited government without insulting 47% of the country. However, like with all things, time brings change.
The Republican party has changed dramatically. It use to be a party that could govern. It use to be a party that acknowledged that the government could do great things - a catalyst for a healthy, robust, and strong country. President Eisenhower, a Republican, implemented one of the largest government programs that created the interstate highways of today. President Nixon created the government agency that helped pave the way for cleaner air and water. Nixon happened to have also dirtied the image of the presidency, but that was after the fact.
The party has now moved so far to the right that it is unrecognizable from the time of Eisenhower or Nixon. RINOs are aware of this phenomenon.
By the way, "RINO," means "Republican In Name Only," a smear tactic that is used by the purest of Republicans to hold the party line.
Bob Dole, the 1996 Republican presidential candidate and Senate majority leader in the 1990's, lamented this much when he appeared on Fox News. He stated that the Republicans should put a sign on the door that says "closed for repairs." He wants Republicans to come up with a few positive ideas because neither Reagan or himself would feel comfortable in its membership today.
It is not only the Republicans of the past that are self-aware of its path to destruction. The College Republican National Committee came up with its own report, which found that people associate Republicans with "close-mindedness and racism." The report also undermined the core principles of the Republican leadership. The majority of young Republicans want higher taxes on the wealthy and more government spending on education. The report even summed up its economic findings with the sentence, "economic growth and opportunity cannot just be about tax cuts and spending cuts."
Everyone must be writing a report after the Republican party was handily defeated in the 2012 elections. The Republican National Committee came up with an "autopsy report" to help the party move forward onto the 2014 cycle. The subject matter of the self-funded study was that the RNC has to do a better job of reaching out to minorities and eliminating the poor messengers of its ideals. No one should have to hear about a Republican mocking the less fortunate or a Senator calling Hispanics "wetbacks."
Yet, with all of the studies, and with all of the introspection, we can expect more of the same from Republicans. They are the ones responsible for the stasis and dysfunction in Congress; and its okay, we should admit it.
Two widely-recognized independent political scientists have admitted it and they think its pertinent to a rational discussion on how we can get out of the rut. Ornstein and Mann wrote a book, which argued that: "The GOP has become an insurgent outlier in American politics. It is ideologically extreme; scornful of compromise; unmoved by conventional understanding of facts, evidence and science; and dismissive of the legitimacy of its political opposition."
They also included a football analogy. "While the Democrats may have moved from their 40-yard line to their 25, the Republicans have gone from their 40 to somewhere behind their goal post."
The week of June 3, 2013 represented the extreme attitudes of the Republican House of Representatives. The dysfunctional body failed to repeal the Affordable Care Act for the 37th time and it voted to end the DREAM executive order, which allows young immigrants to apply for a deportation deferral. Neither of the House bills had a chance to become law, yet, they voted for it anyway.
One has to wonder whether our country can recover from this partisan divide, which has stopped all reform at every level. I remain cautiously optimistic that our generation can do something about it, but something needs be done now. As other Americans walk onto their patios and look into the horizon, they all ask the same question: what does our future hold and do we have a chance? I think that we do.
I use to be a registered Republican. I grew up in a conservative family, went to a conservative high school, and associated with conservative friends. The funny thing is I never really believed in the values. My mother would always tell me with a smile, "Chrissie, if you want to be the Republican president, you are going to have to stop watching Hardball. And you better throw away those liberal books. I don't think your Republican friends will love those Michael Moore DVDs either." I would always grin and respond that I was just trying to study the other side.
The fact of the matter is that a lot of individuals use to be Republicans. There use to be a time when Republicans could advocate for a limited government without insulting 47% of the country. However, like with all things, time brings change.
The Republican party has changed dramatically. It use to be a party that could govern. It use to be a party that acknowledged that the government could do great things - a catalyst for a healthy, robust, and strong country. President Eisenhower, a Republican, implemented one of the largest government programs that created the interstate highways of today. President Nixon created the government agency that helped pave the way for cleaner air and water. Nixon happened to have also dirtied the image of the presidency, but that was after the fact.
The party has now moved so far to the right that it is unrecognizable from the time of Eisenhower or Nixon. RINOs are aware of this phenomenon.
By the way, "RINO," means "Republican In Name Only," a smear tactic that is used by the purest of Republicans to hold the party line.
Bob Dole, the 1996 Republican presidential candidate and Senate majority leader in the 1990's, lamented this much when he appeared on Fox News. He stated that the Republicans should put a sign on the door that says "closed for repairs." He wants Republicans to come up with a few positive ideas because neither Reagan or himself would feel comfortable in its membership today.
It is not only the Republicans of the past that are self-aware of its path to destruction. The College Republican National Committee came up with its own report, which found that people associate Republicans with "close-mindedness and racism." The report also undermined the core principles of the Republican leadership. The majority of young Republicans want higher taxes on the wealthy and more government spending on education. The report even summed up its economic findings with the sentence, "economic growth and opportunity cannot just be about tax cuts and spending cuts."
Everyone must be writing a report after the Republican party was handily defeated in the 2012 elections. The Republican National Committee came up with an "autopsy report" to help the party move forward onto the 2014 cycle. The subject matter of the self-funded study was that the RNC has to do a better job of reaching out to minorities and eliminating the poor messengers of its ideals. No one should have to hear about a Republican mocking the less fortunate or a Senator calling Hispanics "wetbacks."
Yet, with all of the studies, and with all of the introspection, we can expect more of the same from Republicans. They are the ones responsible for the stasis and dysfunction in Congress; and its okay, we should admit it.
Two widely-recognized independent political scientists have admitted it and they think its pertinent to a rational discussion on how we can get out of the rut. Ornstein and Mann wrote a book, which argued that: "The GOP has become an insurgent outlier in American politics. It is ideologically extreme; scornful of compromise; unmoved by conventional understanding of facts, evidence and science; and dismissive of the legitimacy of its political opposition."
They also included a football analogy. "While the Democrats may have moved from their 40-yard line to their 25, the Republicans have gone from their 40 to somewhere behind their goal post."
The week of June 3, 2013 represented the extreme attitudes of the Republican House of Representatives. The dysfunctional body failed to repeal the Affordable Care Act for the 37th time and it voted to end the DREAM executive order, which allows young immigrants to apply for a deportation deferral. Neither of the House bills had a chance to become law, yet, they voted for it anyway.
One has to wonder whether our country can recover from this partisan divide, which has stopped all reform at every level. I remain cautiously optimistic that our generation can do something about it, but something needs be done now. As other Americans walk onto their patios and look into the horizon, they all ask the same question: what does our future hold and do we have a chance? I think that we do.
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