2014: The Year That Dire Warnings Did Not Come to Pass

Crystal balls are supposed to allow a viewer to gain an insight into the future. One allegedly can shake it up and glean information -- enough to shape behavior. Or so they say. I certainly do not believe such nonsense.

Conservatives of late have eagerly made predictions. Like oracles with crystal balls, they have issued dire warnings and prophesied tribulations. As time passed, however, the sky did not fall. Shaking of the earth was absent. Our financial system remained intact.

2014 must have been a disappointing year for those who exhorted gloom. Let's take a look at my favorite predictions gone wrong:

(1) ObamaCare will result in more people uninsured. During the debate of the Affordable Care Act, and actually up until today, despite positive numbers, opponents of health care reform have claimed that the law will result in a death spiral of coverage. It was said that no one would use the exchanges. In conjunction with the cancellation of illegal policies, more people would be without health insurance and out of luck. Not so. Tens of millions now have coverage.The uninsured rate in the country has gone down dramatically.

(2) Health care premiums will skyrocket because of Obamacare. Similar to the claims above, critics foresaw that premiums would increase substantially. Premiums rose only 2.8% nationally, which is much lower than the percentage increases years prior to the Affordable Care Act.

(3) Obama's economic policies will destroy the stock market. Matt O'Brien, a conservative pundit, opined that the market would crash due to President Obama. Quite the opposite has occurred. Both major indices, the DOW and S & P 500, have set records. For a Marxist, he should have to explain his economic track record.

(4) The President's war on coal and energy will mean astronomical gas prices. Perhaps no one saw this coming, but gas prices are extremely low -- with some parts of the country being able to purchase gasoline for under $2.00. While the causes vary, like the fact that global supply is up and global demand is low, the President's all-of-the-above energy policy has been helpful.

(5) The Affordable Care Act will make millions lose their jobs. 2014 was the best year of hiring since 1999. Unemployment is at 5.8% after the greatest recession since the Great Depression. No data suggests that individuals are losing their jobs because of ObamaCare. To the contrary, with more mobility, workers are now finding more fulfilling jobs.

(6) Hyperinflation is inevitable because of the Fed and Obama's monetary decisions. Inflation remains low despite quantitative easing and zero interest rates. Fiscal hawks in the GOP have cried foul but the Fed has not destroyed the dollar. Compared to other major currencies, the dollar's value has increased. Inflation cannot shoot up if there is insufficient demand, even if there is an increase in the money supply. Someone needs to teach that to our conservative representatives.

(7) Putin will outsmart Obama since he is a great leader. On Fox News, former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani praised Putin for his leadership. Other conservatives discussed his masculinity and chess-like intellect. After Russia annexed Crimea and upset the sovereignty of Ukraine, the country is in free fall. The decreasing ruble has caused a run on banks and consumer goods. With an unbalanced national economy, gas prices have contributed to Russia's recession. And, western sanctions have resulted in deep pain to the economy. It appears that Putin was not so bright after all.

The new year is upon us. I won't make any predictions except this one: there will be more nonsense in 2015. It's time for the soothsayers to bring out their crystal balls. Let's toast to the hope that you will have better luck this year (not).

American Foreign Policy: Longing for Simplicity

When it comes to foreign policy, Americans must be confused. Exhausted from a decade of war in far away places, it appeared that public opinion favored less military engagement abroad. However, a recent Pew / USA Today poll puts that assumption to the test. A larger percent of individuals now, 31 percent, think that the United States is not doing enough overseas.

What has caused such a large number of citizens to become more hawkish? It certainly cannot be the tan suit that President Obama wore, which drew a stir of controversy on the Twittersphere. Perhaps it is the turmoil in multiple regions that has caused some anxiety. Truly, the world is a mess right now.

Civil war in Ukraine, Russian aggression, Israel and Hamas, Iraq, Syria, and Libya, are all conflicts; the bloodshed and turmoil is palpable.

The coverage of such events put to question America's role in foreign affairs. What should be America's role? And is President Obama implementing the right responses to such crises?

If you were to ask a Republican legislator, the answer would be: more involvement, and Obama is a failure. More specifically, the talking point oft quoted is that "Obama conveys weakness." Neocons, the advocates of the Bush II Iraq campaign, are enraged that we have not bombed Syria, invaded northern Iraq, and implemented a no-fly zone in Libya. They want harsh talk. They desire more "action."

Criticism is much easier than governing and policy-making. When pushed on follow-ups, the criticizers are usually short on strategy.

The Blame-Obama crowd offer no real alternatives or sound advice. They agree that ground troops should not be used in most conflicts. They even concede that an outright war with Russia over territorial disputes in Ukraine would be foolish. Much of the concern lies with the Administration's timing, optics, and proportionality -- more weapons should have been given to militant groups in Syria (like that worked so well in Afghanistan).

The world is a complex place, with complicated people inhabiting it. While the campaigners yell and scream about foreign policy negligence, evil men and women will continue to kill. A Republican in the White House would not change that.

Given the sociological and anthropological realities, i.e. that we can expect war, conflict, and bloodshed, let me answer the two questions that were posed earlier.

America's role should be the same as it was in the Twentieth Century: a beacon of hope, a template for how the rule of law should be supreme. When possible the United States should exert its strong influence by political, economic, and diplomatic means. The pen is mightier than the sword. It is possible that persuasion and diplomacy could thwart unnecessary war.

Further, America should recognize that other sovereign countries are in charge of their own fates. Yes, we can support and counsel, but ultimately it is impracticable to think that we can intervene in every unjust situation.

Finally, if we do use our superior military, it should be with a clear plan -- a long-term viable strategy. President Bush invaded Iraq but he did not think of the consequences of disrupting an explosive ethnic and political struggle. The Shias and Sunnis need to find a way to govern with an understanding of pluralism.

President Obama has used restraint and I admire that. The easiest thing is not always the right thing. As Commander-in-Chief, he could initiate another war without question. It certainly would be politically beneficial. However, it may not be in the United States' long-term interest.

Is Obama responding appropriately to the different hostilities abroad? For the most part, but he should definitely stop wearing the tan suit. Like they said on Twitter: he is not the President of Sears.